Are Trump voters handing Democrats the House? Even right-leaning pollsters, the ones who called Trump in 2016, now show a blue wave building heading into the 2026 midterms.
In this VT Analytics midterm update, Tom Ellsworth breaks down the numbers. They include Trump’s negative approval spread, Gallup party ID at D+11 (the widest gap in years), and Democratic primary turnout up 48% while Republican turnout is down 2%. Rich Baris’s Big Data Poll shows Trump voters crossing over in North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.
Senate toss-ups in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton)
Kalshi prediction markets: 62% Democrats win the Senate, 90% Democrats win the House
Governor races, including Amy Acton in Ohio and Byron Donalds in Florida
Early voting: 5.7 million ballots in, with Democrats up nearly 26 points in returns
Our final call for the House, Senate, and governors
Election Day is November 3rd. Get out and vote.
Source: Valuetainment
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